This post first appeared on Government Executive. Read the original article.
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Former President Carter’s recent death reminds us that it’s been almost 50 years since the Civil Service Reform Act was passed. Stuart Eizenstat, Carter’s chief domestic adviser, told Federal News Network in 2018, that at the time the president thought that federal employees needed “more flexibility, more incentives, more encouragement [and] that there was a lot of dead wood.”
Carter created the Senior Executive Service, gave federal managers more flexibility and linked their pay increases to performance, although that policy was short-lived.
Carter’s goal, as stated in the law and highlighted on the Office of Personnel Management’s website, was “to provide the people of the United States with a competent, honest, and productive workforce…and to improve the quality of public service.”
Despite creating the SES, however, Carter failed to change how federal employees are managed. The General Schedule is unchanged, except for increases and the introduction of locality pay. Job classification is also the same. OPM still relies on classification standards that date to before Carter’s election. Agencies are reducing the time to hire, but NEOGOV, a public sector human resources software company, reported in 2020 that the average public sector time-to-hire was 119 days–more than three times the average in the private sector. Carter reportedly believed government was “a bureaucratic maze which neglects merit, tolerates poor performance.” For years the responses to the employee survey question with the lowest score — “in my work unit, steps are taken to deal with a poor performer” – confirmed that was accurate.
Now, after the disruptive changes triggered by the COVID crisis, employers have changed how they value “the human behind the employee.” Many GenZers who recently started their careers have never worked in a traditional office environment. The rapid introduction of AI is redefining how workers do their jobs. Worker burnout has become a widespread problem, causing turnover, and a lack of effort at work. The world of work is dramatically different than when President Carter was elected – except in government
While it’s still uncertain how President-elect Trump will change government, it’s expected to start with a hiring freeze and a mandate for employees to return to working in the office. A stated goal is to dismantle the “deep state.” The role of the non-governmental Department of Government Efficiency is to eliminate wasteful spending. There could be mass layoffs. The changes over the next month or two are likely to end many federal careers as well as convince job seekers to avoid government careers.
Government’s Staffing Problems
Fedscope data shows close to 650,000 employees are 55 or older. Retirements in early 2025 could be high, with a heavy loss of operational knowledge. Many of course are in senior level positions.
Among younger workers, 195,000 or 8.5% of the total are GenZers – age 29 or younger. In the nation’s workforce, roughly 20% are younger than 30. Federal jobs have not been popular with young workers but now with the promise of layoffs agencies are unlikely to see many new applications.
Earlier this week OPM officials praised its efforts to reestablish the agency’s “essential role in a well-functioning government” and said it is “primed to build on that success.” But the barrier in government is that employees have always been viewed as a cost, not an asset worthy of investment.
Last month a Government Accountability Office report on staffing problems at the Homeland Security Department suggested that OPM’s touted reforms are inadequate. The report showed that increasing workloads continue to dog the department, finding that“the hiring process ranged from three to 18 months” and “some acquisition staff found those efforts helpful but others worried that the strategies exacerbated the workforce problems.”
DHS of course oversees the Border Patrol agency and its staffing problems. In October, President-elect Trump announced a goal of hiring 10,000 new U.S. agents, along with asking Congress to approve a 10% across-the-board salary increase, and $10,000 retention and recruitment bonuses. But Presidents Obama, Trump and Biden all had plans to increase Border Patrol staffing that failed — despite offering recruiting bonuses that were double or triple Trump’s latest plan.
DHS’ staffing problems have been reported frequently by Government Executive. Over the past two years vacancy problems have been reported in other DHS agencies — FEMA, TSA, Secret Service and the Coast Guard. Vacancies have been reported in a number of other departments and agencies, too, including, Interior, Energy, the Bureau of Prisons, VA Medical Facilities — the list is not complete.
Staffing problems go back decades. As they say, it’s complicated. The reasons for recruiting problems would be difficult to document since the problem varies by occupation, job level, and the local supply of job seekers. OPM’s No. 1 goal has been to “position the federal government as a model employer,” but job seekers are not standing in line applying for federal jobs. Looking ahead, the problems are likely to get worse.
The Growing Importance of Knowledge Workers
The nation’s workforce as well as the federal workforce are very different today. When the GS system was established in the post-war years, work was routine, the majority of jobs were administrative – but those jobs have largely disappeared. Today there is a long list of occupations that either did not exist or were then employed in significantly smaller numbers.
The expansion has been in knowledge occupations – those requiring specialized expertise to “think for a living.” Knowledge workers typically work alone or in small teams of similar experts to solve problems or develop action plans. They conduct research, strategize action plans, analyze data, serve as a technical resources, and assess new developments and emerging trends. Generally, their roles are not part of the bureaucracy.
In terms of employment numbers, healthcare specialists are the largest group and with an aging population vitally important to the health of the country. BLS tracks roughly 50 healthcare fields.
For different reasons STEM fields – science, technology, engineering, and mathematics – are the most important to government and the economy. The proliferation of specialized IT jobs stands out. The jobs website Indeed lists “132 IT Job Titles to Consider.”
Fedscope data show agencies employ over 600,000 knowledge workers. That includes 360,000 in the Medical, Hospital, Dental and Public Health job series. And an unknown number of people work as government contractors.
The important point is that agencies are competing with private employers for the specialists in each of these fields. Their careers follow a common pattern, with promotions based on increased expertise. It’s not uncommon to see young emerging experts overshadow older colleagues. The General Schedule, the use of classification “standards” and seniority-based pay increases are wrong for these specialists.
The best specialists – experts — command far above average salaries. They expect to be paid based on their expertise. Their “value” and their pay is linked to their knowledge and skills, not assigned job duties. The true experts of course are not new graduates, making it essential to understand competitive hiring practices. That has obvious implications for talent management.
Significantly, the BLS pay surveys used by the Federal Salary Council are irrelevant. The BLS focus on nationally representative samples of employers misses the point. That’s also true for the data available on hiring websites like Glassdoor and the data analytic firms like Lightcast.
A GAO audit discussed the staffing problem for experts in the Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health within the Health and Human Services, finding that (he agency is “designed to be flat and nimble” and “expected to drive innovation.” But, that’s not a typical bureaucratic agency.
GAO concluded the agency “has not fully applied selected leading practices to assess the effectiveness of its” recruiting and hiring efforts. Where agencies employee specialists in the same field, it makes sense to pool resources and develop a recruiting strategy that combines their strengths.
It’s not clear how the planned downsizing will impact government’s knowledge workers. The best should have no trouble securing a job in the private sector, possibly with government contractors. The work is not going to stop, and very often if they work for contractors, government will continue “to pay the bill.”
Focusing on Competitive Employment Practices
An obvious problem is that white collar salaries are significantly below private sector pay levels – and the gap never closes. For 2025 (based on 2023 pay data) the average gap was 59% and in a couple of high pay cities, the gap exceeded 100%. Since that is an overall average, the gaps have to be worse for high demand occupations. That no doubt contributes to the small number of GenZ job applicants.
Significantly, the BLS surveys do not report market pay levels by occupation or job level, nor do they monitor basic information like starting salaries. Further, the locality pay construct has been distorted to raise salaries for employees who live miles from their work site. Employers in every other sector rely on more or less standard practices to manage salaries, but OPM relies on a unique approach.
In 2021 RAND released a report for the Defense Department comparing the practice of STEM compensation management with employers in the private sector. The report’s broad recommendations included:
- “Conduct a thorough implementation analysis of current, non-GS pay plans, their effectiveness, and their usage. .”
- “Investigate the effectiveness of special hiring programs and authorities in attracting and hiring talented workers into the federal government.”
- “Explore the relationship between specialized, occupation-specific labor market practices and the [alternatives] to the USAJOBS website”
- “Examine and tailor employment policies toward specific occupations or labor markets”
The changes in work management practices triggered by the COVID crisis makes the RAND report even more important today. The demographic trends and worker shortages in a growing list of occupations will increase competition. As RAND recommended, agencies should monitor the practices that are effective with specific occupations and labor markets. Specialists in a field know what’s effective. Employee Resource Groups are a simple but proven way to understand what’s needed to make an organization attractive to job seekers.
The continuing economic recovery has made the competition for top talent intense. A recent survey from Human Resource Executive found hiring and retaining key talent was twice as important as other HR issues. As McKinsey & Co said in a 2023 report, “it’s no longer enough to simply fill roles; companies must invest in leaders and innovators who can navigate complexity, and align with the values and vision of the organization.” It’s time to acknowledge the civil service system is a barrier to competing for talent.
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